MLB Over/Below Greatest Guess: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds, April 12

Lastly, we get a break. The humorous factor about rain-shortened video games is they might remove numerous bets concerned within the proceedings. For an over/below wager, it usually should go the total 9 innings (or 8.5 if the house crew wins) for the wager to have motion, even when it’s already sailed past the overall (to stop folks from blindly betting overs each time there’s assured dangerous climate that can possible finish the sport prematurely).

So, regardless of final night time’s wager being at 10 runs, the sport being referred to as within the sixth voided it for all (and, to the chagrin of Giants bettors, runline wagers have been worn out, too). We’ll take it. 

Saturday’s whole takes us to a different Cincinnati Reds sport, persevering with their three-game set with the division rival Pittsburgh Pirates. The Reds received the house ‘W’ in final night time’s sequence opener. 

There shall be a extra attention-grabbing pitching matchup available for the second assembly, seeing new Bucs pitcher Andrew Heaney taking up the season-debuting Andrew Abbott. 

The very first thing that ought to stick out straight away is the truth that each starters are left-handed. Why is that this an important element, you ask? 

Nicely each groups stink in opposition to southpaws – no less than within the early going. 

The Reds have been completely dreadful with a lefty on the mound. They’ve managed a pathetic .142/.240/.248 slash line, rating them second from the underside in baseball in all three classes of crew batting common, on-base share and slugging share. 

Not solely that, the Redlegs are putting out a excessive clip additionally, happening through the Ok 33 occasions in 113 at-bats. That’s as soon as virtually each three ABs when dealing with a left-hander.

In the meantime, Pittsburgh hasn’t fared a lot better on this division. Their .196 batting common in opposition to lefties ranks them twenty fourth within the majors, whereas the membership’s .536 OPS ranks them twenty seventh. Within the course of, the Pirates have manufactured solely 4 extra-base hits, which ties them for the fewest in MLB with the Baltimore Orioles.

Moreover, Oneil Cruz – in all probability probably the most explosive hitter within the lineup – is 0-for-11 when dealing with a southpaw. He’s usually struggled in opposition to such pitchers in his younger profession.

Now to simply harness two trusty left-handers for such a bout and that seems to be the case with this explicit billing.

Earlier than moving into analyzing Heaney, I need to confess that there’s undoubtedly no less than just a little bias concerned. He’s been one in all my favourite pitchers since he debuted in 2014 (a 1-0 duel in opposition to Zack Wheeler in Miami, by the best way!).

Nonetheless, there could also be reliable proof to consider that Heaney is on the verge of renaissance late in his profession. And it’s not like he was struggling throughout his most up-to-date tenure with the Texas Rangers. He was an enormous a part of their championship conquest two years in the past, not solely by pitching them into the playoffs on the second-to-last day of the marketing campaign but additionally coming by way of within the postseason – folks neglect he began and received a World Sequence sport! 

The veteran often known as Heandog is out to an important starting in his new digs. Sure, it’s solely been two begins, however they’ve each been very encouraging, particularly final day trip when he held the mighty Yankees to a mere one run throughout seven sharp innings and putting out 10!

Heaney succeeding proper now might be the results of some new issues he’s doing. As an example, in that aforementioned starter reverse the Bronx Bombers, the 33-year-old was deploying his curveball extra, even notching 5 Ks with that one pitch for the primary time in 5 seasons.

There was additionally considerably heavier utilization of his sinker. After throwing solely 10 of them mixed from 2020-24, he fired seven of that pitch alone in his final outing.

Add in his reliance on an occasional sidearm supply and it’s evident that Heaney has made some notable changes that may proceed his present run of success. I’ve personally seen him for a very long time as among the best energetic gamers within the sport to have by no means been named an All-Star (accidents undoubtedly had an affect in that as properly). Foreshadowing, possibly?

The counterpart, Andrew Abbott, is making his first begin of the yr after getting a little bit of a late begin to the spring. That bumped him to Triple-A for a bit earlier than returning to The Present.

Abbott’s numbers in these two minor league begins have been nothing particular however he’s simply a kind of guys that advantages from being on the highest stage and wishes that additional depth he will get to be able to succeed. Minor league video games don’t convey that out of somebody like Abbott, who has already had success with the big-league membership.

Bear in mind, the third-year starter was wonderful as quickly as he arrived, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in his first 14 profession begins. A yr in the past additionally introduced out extra high quality work from Abbott earlier than succumbing to a shoulder harm.

Each guys might be on their sport tonight with weak offenses reverse left-handed pitching on their plate. 

Choose: UNDER 8.5 (-118, DraftKings) 

2025 MLB Betting Report: 9-6-2, +2.23 models 

Over/Unders: 8-4-1 

Props: 1-1 

MLs: 0-1 

Yesterday’s Outcome: Giants-Yankees Below 8 (No Motion) 

Every wager graded as if it have been to win one unit except in any other case indicated. 

Comply with me on X (previously Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential extra picks.