Over the previous 12 days, Dogecoin (DOGE) has endured a pointy decline, shedding greater than 40% of its worth. After buying and selling above $0.48 on December 8, the meme-inspired cryptocurrency briefly sank to $0.2638 by December 20, prompting a wave of hypothesis about its near-term route. The backdrop to this drawdown has been the broader crypto market’s response to US Federal Reserve coverage alerts, with the newest downturn largely attributed to extra hawkish projections from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Whereas the Fed’s December assembly delivered a extensively anticipated 25 foundation level charge reduce, the true shock got here from the revised dot plot, which pointed to fewer future cuts than beforehand anticipated. The market had hoped for 3 charge cuts in 2025, however the FOMC’s steering now leans towards simply two, suggesting a extra cautious method amid persistent inflationary pressures. This shift in outlook triggered broad-based promoting in risk-on belongings, together with cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped beneath $93,000, and altcoins -20% drawdowns. Inside 24 hours, a staggering $1.17 billion in lengthy positions had been liquidated throughout the crypto markets.
How Low Can Dogecoin Go?
Quite a few outstanding analysts have weighed in on DOGE’s retreat, framing it inside the context of historic patterns and macro-level drivers. Technical analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) highlights the importance of earlier cycles. He notes that, traditionally, Dogecoin has skilled a number of important corrections en path to its cycle tops, stating that the present pullback—much like previous 50% drawdowns—may very well be a part of a regular bull market construction somewhat than an indication of systemic weak point.
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In keeping with Kevin, “Within the earlier cycle Dogecoin had three separate 50% corrections on the best way to its cycle prime. If we faucet macro structured assist and the macro golden pocket proper beneath that will be roughly a forty five% correction from the excessive which based mostly off historic analyses could be simply sufficient for us to renew uptrend. If we lose $0.26 cents on a weekly shut then I might begin to severely fear about this market construction however till then this ought to be handled as a traditional bull market pullback.”
Kevin additionally underscores Bitcoin’s affect over the altcoin panorama. As an alternative of focusing solely on DOGE’s standalone chart, he encourages merchants to “not be hyper centered on altcoin charts” to gauge the market’s macro route. BTC stays the pivotal asset whose worth motion usually dictates sentiment throughout the broader crypto house.
Kevin illustrated this level by sharing a BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, suggesting the market might search to flush out decrease liquidity pockets earlier than any significant rebound. “Let’s go snag all that liquidity at $95K-90K after which we will begin speaking a few bounce. Till then no purpose to over analyze. From a elementary standpoint the market is overreacting to what Powell is saying and never really listening to him. Simply because charge reduce projections,” he writes.
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Balo (@btcbalo), one other crypto analyst, reinforces the significance of the $0.26 stage. He factors out that Dogecoin “nonetheless has a couple of days to avoid wasting the weekly,” indicating {that a} weekly shut above this threshold would preserve a structurally sound market framework.
A profitable protection of the $0.26 zone might set the stage for a renewed uptrend, doubtlessly concentrating on a return to $0.42—what Balo views as a important pivot level. Reclaiming $0.42 would, in his phrases, permit DOGE to “teleport” towards the $4 mark, a situation he associates with a full-scale bull run restoration.
A 3rd analyst, CEO (@Investments_CEO), brings a historic perspective, suggesting that DOGE’s present sample aligns with its multi-year cyclical nature. “DOGE seems to be aligning with its typical 3-4 yr cycle. Zoom out,” he states.
The analyst refers to DOGE’s worth motion following its earlier cycle fractal. Again in 2021, Dogecoin skilled its first main run-up approaching its all-time excessive (ATH). After a 50% correction, DOGE resumed its rally, broke by the ATH, after which entered worth discovery. As talked about earlier, this situation might align with the $0.26 worth goal.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.26919.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com